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20130113
20130121
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stronger in the second half. >> for the economy? i think we have to divorce the economy from the market. >> have we been price thatting that out? >> we have to be clear that markets are totally different from the economy. for the markets, we're looking at 2% scenario. scenario a would be similar to 2012 where i think actually the economy doesn't do that well. the first half is difficult. second half is a bit better. we've still got the fed printing 5 billion a month. we could see a rerun of 2012. maybe mid to single high digit returns. >> did you get exposure of citi to bofa here? >> we wouldn't be. we're taking a little bit of money off the table or indeed i think we did. the level of implied volatility makes perfect sense here. >> we'll leave it here for now. thanks very much. over to you, ross. >> kelly, thanks for that. so we are just about an hour and 20 minutes into the trading day here in europe. you can see advancers just about outpace decliners by a ratio of 6 to 4 and we're up near the high point of the session which has dragged us back into prospect on that particular indices
about the u.s. economy, the turning in the house prices, europe, for example, these things will make an extraordinary amount of money even if they require more capital because banks are extremely leveraged institutions. and you only need a small amount of top line growth for them to make a lot of profits. >> if you to pick u.s. banks versus the rest of the world, what do you like for 2013? >> it bizarre thing is that last year everybody was upset about the masters of the universe and were talking up their retail and sort of consumer arms because credit losses were falling. interestingly, this year i suspect bank with more exposure to independent banking will probably do a lot better much to the chagrin of politicians i suspect. why is that? the m&a pipeline's looking all right. u.s. economy's looking slightly better. and we're still pre-basal 3. >> we'll leave it there. lex on wex, can we use that? >> yeah. >> is that all right with you? >> fine by me. >> lex on wex. >> stuart, thank you very much. we will be talking later about divestment. merger and acquisition activity this year d
and the economy in general. and about the market. let's start with the news, the market had a great day today. the s&p 500 close to or at a five-year high right now. why is the market doing so well even though the economy is still kind of in a slow move? >> david, nobody can explain the day-to-day moves in the market anmatter how hard we try. the market discounts well in advance of what we mere morals are able to do for my day-to-day. other days you're not sure why. i would be hazarding a guess, i don't know why. david: a lot of people have speculated about this from the "wall street journal" and others that it is the contention in the specific intention of the federal reserve over the past year or so to pump up the market. is that true? >> certainly this is in effect have a much lower interest rates. you can do the math, historically low rates for corporations in america public or private, large or small. medium-sized. have a very small balance sheets, redoing the balance sheet, reposition their debt at much lower prices. it'd just get some clarity as you know, a little more clarity, a lot m
of the economy. a discussion about the fed earlier in terms of the beige book numbers. what do you think that tells us on where we are in the economy? >> look at numbers of the last week or two, retail production numbers for december, and they were actually pretty good. of course, the employment numbers we already know were soiled, and this is in a period where the uncertainty over the fiscal cliff was reaching a maximum. you know, maria, you think that's pretty encouraging that the economy has managed to cope with a high level of uncertainty. now the thing that kind of bothers me though is i'm a little bit worried that this coping is flipping over to complacency. the vix is now at a six-year low, and it tells me that the market is discounting 100% probability that we get through the debt ceiling without any trouble. that seems too high to me. >> so do you think the market is expecting that? i mean, when would you expect a big change in terms of the interest rate scenario? >> in terms of the interest rate scenario, probably nothing this year. i mean, we're at least a couple years away fr
, housing is better, you want to be invested in this economy for the next three to five years because that's where you're going to make money. you're not going to make money in fixed income. you're not going to make money focusing on only pure dividend stocks that are 5%, 6%. you're going to have to have companies that can grow the top lines, that have the ability to shepherd capital and really can take the consumer that is now in a better shape than the u.s. and now is getting better overseas to grow your company. >> okay. so you're talking mostly about multi national companies or -- >> multi nationals and secular growth companies. >> both? >> both, absolutely. but you want good companies with management that are just not going to sit there and do financial engineering and say, oh, we borrowed more money and because our cost of debt is lower than our dividend and we can do that. that party is over. that game is done. you really want the companies that i think if you want to beat the market and we think actually the market is going to have -- is going to grow, gives you a look at how much
, you have to see the economy get better. that could happen. i'm hoping it will happened. i'm just not sure if this is the time to put new money into goldman sachs, if we're sure not sure that will play its way out. it's just a matter of, how long does it take for the uncertainty to get out of the way, so companies can get back to making acquisitions. >> jeff, do people give you a hard time when you cut the ratings and yet boost the price targets? that gets made fun of a lot. >> yeah, we do get some for it. the price target increase, it's very form layically driven. what our pick it into our what it's done over the last decades, and the price target -- i don't think 1.1 times tangible is expensive, but we do get some push back on that for sure. >> i'll bet you do. we had a discussion earlier about whether the go long money center short liegen center will last other reverse. do you have a view? >> i would expect it to last, maybe continue. the pressure is hitting the bank industry right now. i think the money center banks have a usneaks advantage to not have as much pressure and exp
Search Results 0 to 5 of about 6